2017 Sydney Conference - Program

Conference Day 1

 9 JANUARY (MONDAY), 2017  

9:00-9:30   Registration & Coffee

New Law Annexe, University of Sydney
Welcome, Prof. Simon Tormey, Head - School of Social & Political Sciences, University of Sydney

9:30-11:00 Session 1

A1 - New Law Annexe 444
Unknown Bias and Treatment Effects
Uncovering Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
Yuki Shiraito, Princeton University
Non-Ignorable Attrition in the Matched-Pair Design
Kentaro Fukumoto, Gakushuin University
Discussant: Luke Keele

B1 - New Law Annexe 446
Intrastate Conflict
Does Violent Secessionism Work?
Ryan Griffiths, University of Sydney
Aid Dependency and Civil War Recurrence
Hojung Joo, & Taehee Whang, Yonsei University
Discussant: Koji Kagotani

11:00-12:30 Session 2

A2 - New Law Annexe 444
Advances in Text as Data
Ideas, Words and the 1788 Ratification Debates
John Londregan, Princeton University
Human computation scaling for measuring meaningful latent traits in political texts
Jacob Montgomery, Washington University in St. Louis
Discussant: Shawn Treier

B2 - New Law Annexe 446
Party Policies and Voting in the 2016 Australian Federal Election
Gender Quotas in the 2016 Election
Katrine Beauregard, ANU
Party Positions and Patrimonial Economic Voting: Evidence from Australia, 2001-2016
Tim Hellwig, University of Indiana & Ian McAllister, ANU
Moral Politics, Social Permissiveness and Voting in Australia
Jill Sheppard, ANU
Discussant: David Gow

12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-3:00 Session 3

A3 - New Law Annexe 444
Political Behavior in its Context
Connecting Context and Attitudes with Dynamically Geolocated Survey Data
Ryan Moore, American University & Andrew Reeves, Washington University in St. Louis
Do politicians change their behaviour when they know what voters want?
Peter Loewen, University of Toronto
Discussant: Harold Clarke

B3 - New Law Annexe 446
Human Rights
Explaining Patterns of Transnational Nongovernmental Human Rights Reporting
Dongwook Kim, ANU
Human Rights Violations and Post-Election Protest
Svitlana Chernykh, ANU & Sam Bell, Kansas State University
Discussant: Rich Frank

3:00-3:30 Coffee
3:30-4:30 Keynote

New Law Lecture Theatre 101
Estimating the Mean Square Error of a Survey with Unknown Selection Bias
Doug Rivers, Stanford University/Hoover Institution

 6:30 Conference Dinner Otto Noorba Turkish Restaurant, 79 Glebe Point Road (walking distance from hotels/University of Sydney)

Keynote Speaker:

Douglas Rivers is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor of political science at Stanford University. He is also the Chief Scientist at YouGov PLC, a global polling firm. He has founded two successful technology companies, Preview Systems and Knowledge Networks. He received an Innovator's Award from the American Association of Public Opinion Research in 2001. He is also a CBS News consultant and has published academic papers in numerous journals including the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science and the American Economics Review.

Conference Day 2

 10 JANUARY (TUESDAY), 2017

9:00-9:30   Registration & Coffee
9:30-11:00 Session 4

A4 - New Law Annexe 444
Prediction
Predicting conflict at subnational levels of spatial aggregation
Tim Tepel, University of Sydney / Bundeswehr University Munich, et al.
A new framework for making better predictions
Adeline Lo, Princeton University, Herman Chernoff & Tian Zheng, Harvard University, & Shaw-Hwa Lo, Columbia University
Discussant: Jacob Montgomery

B4 - New Law Annexe 446
Changing Nature of the State
Regulatory Capture in Public Procurement: Evidence from Revolving Door Bureaucrats in Japan
Kentaro Asai, ANU, Kei Kawai, University of California Berkeley, Jun Nakabayashi, Kindai University
Democratic reform and the growth of government in nineteenth century Britain
Jonathan Chapman, NYU Abu Dhabi
Discussant: Michael Dalvean

11:00-12:30 Session 5

Posters - New Law Annexe 440 & 442

12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-3:00 Session 6

A6 - New Law Annexe 444
Advances in Causal Inference
When Should We Use Linear Fixed Effects Regression Models for Causal Inference with Longitudinal Data?
Kosuke Imai, Princeton University & In Song Kim, MIT
Patterns of Effects and Sensitivity Analysis for Differences-in-Differences
Luke Keele, Georgetown University, Dylan Small & Jesse Hsu, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Kentaro Fukumoto

B6 - New Law Annexe 446
Elections in Comparative Perspective
The Liberals Should Pray for Rain: Rain, Generation Gap in Turnout and Electoral Outcomes in South Korea
Woo Chang Kang, ANU
Comparing Apples and Oranges? The cross-national comparability of expert data on election integrity
Carolien van Ham, UNSW & Ferran Martinez i Coma, Griffith University
Changes in the Style and Content of Election Campaign Speeches from 1901 to 2016: a Computational Linguistic Analysis
Michael Dalvean, ANU
Discussant: Jonathan Chapman

3:00-3:30 Coffee
3:30-5:00 Session 7

A7 - New Law Annexe 444
Dimensionality and Measurement
Gradations or Degradation? Dichotomous vs. Scale Measures of Democracy
Shawn Treier, ANU
The Sources of Complexity: Measuring and Explaining the Dimensionality of Ideological and Party Perceptions
Royce Carroll, Rice University & Hiroki Kubo, University of Essex
Discussant: John Londregan

B7 - New Law Annexe 446
Friends, Foes, and Perceptions in IR
Being There: U.S. Force Posture, Offshore Balancing and Alliance Reliability
Koji Kagotani, Osaka University of Economics & Erik Gartzke, University of California, San Diego
Australian Military Views of Islam: A List Experiment
Charles Miller, ANU
Discussant: Hojung Joo


Conference Day 3

 11 JANUARY (WEDNESDAY), 2017

9:30-10:00   Registration & Coffee
10:00-12:00 Session 8 A8 - New Law Lecture Theatre 101
Australian Survey Data and Data Sources
  • Australian Election Study, Ian McAllister, ANU
  • The ANUpoll, Jill Sheppard, ANU
  • World Values Survey, Australian survey, Toni Makkai, ANU
  • Online Probability Sampling, Darren Pennay, Survey Research Centre
  • Australian Data Archive, Steve McEachern, ANU
Discussant: Shaun Ratcliff                              
12:00-1:00 Lunch

1:00-2:30 Session 9

A9 - New Law Annexe 444
Open Economies & Bad Outcomes
Foreign Direct Investment into Areas of Civil Conflict
Richard Frank & Chungshik Moon, ANU
Capital Flows, Exchanges Rates, and the Political Economy of High Beta Economies
Mark Manger & Michael Gavin, University of Toronto
Discussant: Ryan Griffiths

B9 - New Law Annexe 446
Issue Salience
We will decide who comes to this country: Attitudes towards immigration and voter behaviour at the 2013 federal election
Shaun Ratcliff, University of Sydney, Andrea Carson, University of Melbourne, & Marija Taflaga, ANU
Measuring political issue salience: a validation exercise using Google Trends data
Jill Sheppard & Nicholas Biddle, ANU
Examining the effect of media coverage on MII responses during the 2016 Australian election campaign
Andrea Carson, Aaron Martin, University of Melbourne, & Shaun Ratcliff, University of Sydney
Discussant: Woo Chang Kang                                        

  End of Conference

POSTERS

Fair Election as Probaito Diabolica? A Bayesian-Like Geometric Interpretation of Digit-Based Election Forensics
Yuta Kamahara, Yokohama National University

Non-Linear Brexit: Dynamic Time Series Models of British Attitudes Towards the European Union
Harold Clarke, University of Texas Dallas

Identifying the Belief Update during the Crisis
Sasaki Tomoya, The University of Tokyo

The State of Malapportionment in the World
Junichiro Wada, Yokohama City University

Game Theoretic Analysis on the Separation of Powers and Party Politics: A Case of South Korea
Kyu Sik Yang, Yonsei University

Measuring Silence: Sender Intent in Economic Sanctions
A Young Chun, Yonsei University

Embedded Rise: A Network Analysis to Decode China’s Strategy for Seeking Great Power Status
Xun Pang, Tsinghua University & Wei Xiong, China Foreign Affaris University

Does Thirst for Oil Drive China’s Foreign Aid Flows? Identifying Causal Effects With Instrumental Variables
Jerry Qiushi Yu, Peking University

Politicians' smiles are much more important than girls’
Kosuke Nakamura, Yokohama City University

Why are some aid projects harder than others? Disaggregating the impacts of aid on violence patterns during civil conflicts
Gaku Ito, University of Toyama & National Institutes for the Humanities

Is there an economic vote for inflation?
David Monk, Australian National University

The visibility of tax and support for welfare state
Sun Young Park, Seoul National University

Envy and the Islamic Revival: Experimental evidence from Tunisia
Maleke Fourati, UNSW

AsianPolmeth IV & ASQPS V Program