2017 Sydney Conference - Program

Conference Day 1

 9 JANUARY (MONDAY), 2017  

9:00-9:30   Registration & Coffee
9:30-11:00 Session 1

Unknown Bias and Treatment Effects
Uncovering Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
Yuki Shiraito, Princeton University
Non-Ignorable Attrition in the Matched-Pair Design
Kentaro Fukumoto, Gakushuin University
Discussant: Luke Keele

Intrastate Conflict
Does Violent Secessionism Work?
Ryan Griffiths, University of Sydney
Aid Dependency and Civil War Recurrence
Hojung Joo, Yonsei University
Co-author  - Taehee Whang, Yonsei University
Discussant: Koji Kagotani

11:00-12:30 Session 2

Advances in Text as Data
Ideas, Words and the 1788 Ratification Debates
John Londregan, Princeton University
Human computation scaling for measuring meaningful latent traits in political texts
Jacob Montgomery, Washington University in St. Louis
Discussant: Shawn Treier

Party Policies and Voting in the 2016 Australian Federal Election
Gender Quotas in the 2016 Election
Katrine Beauregard, ANU
The Impact of Economic Policies on Electoral Choice in the 2016 Australian Election
Ian McAllister, ANU
Moral Politics, Social Permissiveness and Voting in Australia
Jill Sheppard, ANU
Discussant: David Gow

12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-3:00 Session 3

Political Behavior in its Context
Connecting Context and Attitudes with Dynamically Geolocated Survey Data
Ryan Moore, American University & Andrew Reeves, Washington University in St. Louis
Do politicians change their behaviour when they know what voters want?
Peter Loewen, University of Toronto
Discussant: Harold Clarke

Human Rights
Explaining Patterns of Transnational Nongovernmental Human Rights Reporting
Dongwook Kim, ANU
Human Rights Violations and Post-Election Protest
Svitlana Chernykh, ANU & Sam Bell, Kansas State University
Discussant: Rich Frank

3:00-3:30 Coffee
3:30-4:30 Keynote

Estimating the Mean Square Error of a Survey with Unknown Selection Bias
Doug Rivers, Stanford University/Hoover Institution

 6:30 Conference Dinner

Conference Day 2


9:00-9:30   Registration & Coffee
9:30-11:00 Session 4

Predicting conflict at subnational levels of spatial aggregation
Tim Tepel, University of Sydney / Bundeswehr University Munich et al.
A new framework for making better predictions
Adeline Lo, Princeton University; Herman Chernoff & Tian Zheng, Harvard University; & Shaw-Hwa Lo, Columbia University
Discussant: Jacob Montgomery

Changing Nature of the State
Regulatory Capture in Public Procurement: Evidence from Revolving Door Bureaucrats in Japan
Kentaro Asai, ANU; Kei Kawai, University of California Berkeley; Jun Nakabayashi, Kindai University
Democratic reform and the growth of government in nineteenth century Britain
Jonathan Chapman, NYU Abu Dhabi
Discussant: Michael Dalvean

11:00-12:30 Session 5


12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-3:00 Session 6

Advances in Causal Inference
When Should We Use Linear Fixed Effects Regression Models for Causal Inference with Longitudinal Data?
Kosuke Imai, Princeton University & In Song Kim, MIT
Patterns of Effects and Sensitivity Analysis for Differences-in-Differences
Luke Keele, Georgetown University; Dylan Small & Jesse Hsu, U Penn
Discussant: Kentaro Fukumoto

Elections in Comparative Perspective
The Liberals Should Pray for Rain: Rain, Generation Gap in Turnout and Electoral Outcomes in South Korea
Woo Chang Kang, ANU
Comparing Apples and Oranges? The cross-national comparability of expert data on election integrity
Carolien van Ham, & Ferran Martinez i Coma, Griffith University
Changes in the Style and Content of Election Campaign Speeches from 1901 to 2016: a Computational Linguistic Analysis
Michael Dalvean, ANU
Discussant: Jonathan Chapman

3:00-3:30 Coffee
3:30-5:00 Session 7

Dimensionality and Measurement
Gradations or Degradation? Dichotomous vs. Scale Measures of Democracy
Shawn Treier, ANU
The Sources of Complexity: Measuring and Explaining the Dimensionality of Ideological and Party Perceptions
Royce Carroll, Rice U. & Hiroki Kubo, U. of Essex
Discussant: John Londregan

Friends, Foes, and Perceptions in IR
Being There: U.S. Force Posture, Offshore Balancing and Alliance Reliability
Koji Kagotani, Osaka University of Economics & Erik Gartzke, University of California, San Diego
Australian Military Views of Islam: A List Experiment
Charles Miller, ANU
Discussant: Hojung Joo

Conference Day 3


9:30-10:00   Registration & Coffee
10:00-12:00 Session 8                                                               A8
                             Australian Survey Data and Data Sources
Australian Election Study                                   Online Probability Sampling
  Ian McAllister, ANU                                    Darren Pennay, Survey Research Centre 
     The ANUpoll                                                       Australian Data Archive
  Jill Sheppard, ANU                                               Steve McEachern, ANU
World Values Survey, Australian survey              Australian Survey of Social Attitudes

  Toni Makkai, ANU                                                       ACSPRI Rep TBA
Discussant: Shaun Ratcliff

12:00-1:00 Lunch

1:00-2:30 Session 9

Open Economies & Bad Outcomes
Foreign Direct Investment into Areas of Civil Conflict
Richard Frank & Chungshik Moon, ANU
Capital Flows, Exchanges Rates, and the Political Economy of High Beta Economies
Mark Manger & Michael Gavin, University of Toronto
Discussant: Ryan Griffiths

Issue Salience
Who is worried about immigration in Australia? The Spatial and demographic predictors about opposition to new arrivals
Shaun Ratcliff, Monash University & Andrea Carson, University of Melbourne
Measuring political issue salience: a validation exercise using Google Trends data
Jill Sheppard & Nicholas Biddle, ANU
Discussant: Woo Chang Kang                                        

  End of Conference


Fair Election as Probaito Diabolica? A Bayesian-Like Geometric Interpretation of Digit-Based Election Forensics
Yuta Kamahara, Yokohama National University

Non-Linear Brexit: Dynamic Time Series Models of British Attitudes Towards the European Union
Harold Clarke, University of Texas Dallas

Identifying the Belief Update during the Crisis
Sasaki Tomoya, The University of Tokyo

The State of Malapportionment in the World
Junichiro Wada, Yokohama City University

Game Theoretic Analysis on the Separation of Powers and Party Politics: A Case of South Korea
Kyu Sik Yang, Yonsei University

Measuring Silence: Sender Intent in Economic Sanctions
A Young Chun, Yonsei University

Embedded Rise: A Network Analysis to Decode China’s Strategy for Seeking Great Power Status
Xun Pang, Tsinghua University

Does Thirst for Oil Drive China’s Foreign Aid Flows? Identifying Causal Effects With Instrumental Variables
Qiushi Yu, Peking University

Politician’s smiles are much more important than girls’
Kosuke Nakamura, Yokohama City University

Why are some aid projects are harder than others? Disaggregating the impacts of aid on violence patterns during civil conflicts
Gaku Ito, University of Toyama & National Institutes for the Humanities

Is there an economic vote for inflation?
David Monk, Australian National University

The visibility of tax and support for welfare state
Sun Young Park, Seoul National University

Envy and the Islamic Revival: Experimental evidence from Tunisia
Maleke Fourati, UNSW