2016 Beijing Conference - Program

THURSDAY, JANUARY 7, 2016: Arrival and Hotel Check-In

FRIDAY, JANUARY 8, 2016

8:15 A.M. Shuttle Pick-Up at Wenjin Hotel
8:30 A.M. Registration Datong Room
9:00 A.M. Opening Remarks Datong Room
9:10 A.M. Session 1 - Keynote Address (Chair: Kosuke Imai, Princeton University)

A Review of Missing Data in Political Science and Some New Tools   
*Jeff Gill, Washington University, Saint Louis
Datong Room
10:10 A.M. Coffee Break
10:20 A.M. Session 2 - Casual Inference (Chair: Benjamin Goldsmith, University of Sydney)
Randomization Based Instrumental Variables Methods for Binary Outcomes
*Luke Keele, Penn State University, ljk20@psu.edu
Co-authors - Dylan Small, University of Pennsylvania and Richard Grieve, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine   

*Luke Miratrix, Harvard University
Discussant: Marc Ratkovic, Princeton University, ratkovic@princeton.edu
Datong Room
  Casual Interaction in High Dimension
*Kosuke Imai, Princeton University, kimai@princeton.edu
*Naoki EgamiPrinceton University, negami@princeton.edu 
Discussant: Li Xiang, National University of Singapore, xiang.li.86@u.nus.edu 
11:50 A.M. Lunch Jiasuo Cafeteria
1:30 P.M. Session 3 - Invited Talk (Chair: Xun Pang, Tsinghua University)
The Future of Quantitative Social Sciences at Modern Research Universities
*Andrew D. Martin, Dean of College of Literature, Science, and the ArtsThe University of Michigan
Datong Room
2:15 P.M.  Coffee Break
2:30 P.M. Session 4 - Experiment and Scientific Prediction (Chair: Jong Hee Park, Seoul National University)
Responsive to Whom? The Influence of Superiors, Businesses, and Residents on Chinese Officials: Combining List Experiment and Endorsement Experiment
*Tianguang MengTsinghua University, maxmeng@tsinghua.edu.cn  
*Jennifer Pan, Stanford University, jjpan@fas.harvard.edu
Discussant: Luke Keele, Penn State University, ljk20@psu.edu
Datong Room
Why aren't significant variables automatically predictive?
*Adeline LoUniversity of California, San Diego, aylo@ucsd.edu
*Herman ChernoffHarvard University 
Discussant: Tim Tepel, Bundeswehr University Munich, tim.tepel@unibw.de 
4:00 P.M. Coffee Break
4:20 P.M. Session 5 - Posters
(Please see below for Poster Information)
Datong Room
5:50 P.M. Shuttle to Wenjin Hotel

SATURDAY, JANUARY 9, 2016

9:00 A.M. Shuttle Pick-Up at Wenjin Hotel
9:15 A.M. Registration Datong Room
9:30 A.M. Session 6: Big Data and Computational Political Science (Chair: Kentaro Fukumoto, Gakushuin University)
Dynamic Estimation of Media Slant
*Jong Hee ParkSeoul National University, jongheepark@snu.ac.kr
Discussant: John Londregan, Princeton University, jbl@princeton.edu
Datong Room
Tweet as a Tool for Election Forecast: UK 2015 General Election as an Example
*Akitaka Matsuo, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, akitaka.matsuo@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
*Raymond DuchNuffield College, University of Oxford, raymond.duch@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
*Philipp BurckhardtCarnegie Mellon University, pburckhardt@cmu.edu
Discussant: Kosuke Imai, Princeton University 
A Sparse Decomposition of Democracy and Trade
*In Song KimMassachusetts Institute of Technology, insong@mit.edu
*Marc RatkovicPrinceton University, ratkovic@princeton.edu
*John LondreganPrinceton University, jbl@princeton.edu
Discussant: Adeline Lo, University of California, San Diego, aylo@ucsd.edu
11:30 A.M. Lunch Jiasuo Cafeteria
1:30 P.M.
Session 7 - Bayesian Statistics (Chair: Tianguang Meng, Tsinghua University)
Dealing with Separation for Clustered Binary Data in Political Science Applications
*Subhasish RayNational University of Singapore, polrs@nus.edu.sg
Discussant: Yu-Sung Su, Tsinghua University, suyusung@tsinghua.edu.cn
Datong Room
  Happy Generations and Depressed Generations in China: An Analysis Using A Novel Age-Period-Cohort Regression Model
*Yu-Sung Su
Tsinghua University, suyusung@tsinghua.edu.cn
Discussant: Benjamin Goldsmith, University of Sydney
Modeling Evolution of Connectivity and Interdependence: A Bayesian Multilevel Spatial Model with a Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Coefficient
*Xun PangTsinghua University, xpang@tsinghua.edu.cn
Discussant: Jong Hee Park, Seoul National University, jongheepark@snu.ac.kr
3:30 P.M.
Coffee Break
3:40 P.M. Session 8 - Advances in Voter Turnout Analysis (Chair: Yu-Sung Su, Tsinghua University)
Voter Turnout and Preference Aggregation
*Yasutora Watanabe
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,  yasutora@ust.hk
*Kei KawaiUniversity of California Berkeley, kkawai@stern.nyu.edu
Discussant: Laura Silver, University of Pennsylvania, lsilver@asc.upenn.edu
Datong Room
Gender Gap in Voter Turnout by Moon Age: A Circular Data Analysis
*Kentaro FukumotoGakushuin University
Discussant: Quing Qian He, University of Twente, q.he-1@utwente.nl 
5:10 P.M. Concluding Remarks

POSTERS

Selective Charity: Measuring Public Trust in the PRC
Dimitar GueorguievSyracuse University 
Li Shao
Syracuse University

Predicting the escalation of violent conflict for subnational regions in Africa / Asia: A new methodological approach
Tim TepelBundeswehr University Munich
Carlo Masala, Bundeswehr University Munich

Resist Concrete Policy Commitments and Let Your Partisan Reputation Reveal The Rest
Nick LinUniversity of Mannheim
Jason EichorstUniversity of Mannheim

Characterizing Punctuated Equilibrium in Comparative Analysis
Kwan Nok ChanThe University of Hong Kong

Unsupervised Algorithms in International Politics
Wu JiangTsinghua University

The Process and Mechanism of Party Identification Formation
Su Chuan Ma, Engineering University of CAPF

Does Democracy Cause Trade Policy Liberalization? An Empirical Investigation Using Instrumental Variable (IV) Method
Xiang Andrew LiNational University of Singapore
Chao ChenNational University of Singapore

Political regimes and economic growth: An empirical test of an economic model of dictatorship
Nakamura KosukeYokohama City University

Are Liberal Democrats in China Liberal Democrats? A Finite Mixture Model Approach on China Survey Data 2011
Kyu Won LeeSeoul National University

Elections and Ethnic Conflict: A Stochastic Actor-Based Network Analysis of Sri Lanka
Chenbo YangChinese University of Hong Kong

Issue cross-pressures and swing voting
Qing Qian HeUniversity of Twente
Kees AartsUniversity of Twente

Modeling High Dimensional Data with Pair-Copulas: An Application to Duration Data with Sample Selection and Multiple Events
Soichiro YamauchiUniversity of Tokyo

Partisanship, Constituency Interests and US China Policy: Differing Perceptions and Positions to China in the US Congress
Suji KangSeoul National University

Age, Promotion and Fiscal Extraction
YuHong Kong University of Science and Technology

State Space Models for the Dynamics of Party Support in Britain, 2010-2015
Harold ClarkeUniversity of Texas at Dallas
Karl HoUniversity of Texas at Dallas
Dennis WengState University of New York, Cortland (SUNY-Cortland)

Authoritarian Elections, Electoral Integrity, and Political Instability:  Dangerous Choices from the Menu of Manipulation?
Benjamin GoldsmithUniversity of Sydney
Charles ButcherUniversity of Sydney

Consequence of Chinese Aid to Africa: How American Aid Becomes Less Effective in UNGA Vote Buying
Xun PangTsinghua University
Shuai WangTsinghua University

The Impact of Informal Political Participation on Government's Trust in China--Based on the Data of CGSS 2010
Qingyan WangHong Kong University of Science and Technology
Dahai JiaoNanjing University

A Critical Review of the Methods Employed in the Political Science Research on Value Orientations, with a View Towards Reconstruction of the Finding on the Basis of Sound Statistical Modeling
A. Jan KutylowskiUniversity of Oslo

Asian PolMeth III Program