2018 Seoul Conference - Program

THURSDAY, JANUARY 11, 2018

8:40 A.M. Shuttle Pick-Up at Hoam Faculty House  
9:00 A.M. Opening Remarks Youngwon Hall
9:10 A.M. Session 1 - Keynote Address

Michael Ward (Duke University), "How to Analyze Relational Data (and Take Dyads Seriously)"

Youngwon Hall
10:10 A.M. Tea Break  
10:20 A.M. Session 2 - Big Data in Politcal Methodology

Kosuke Imai (Princeton University), “Using a Probabilistic Model to Assist Merging of Large-scale Administrative Records

Dean Knox (Princeton University) and Christopher Lucas (Harvard University), “Classifying Speaker Affect in Audio Data

Discussant: Johan Lim (Seoul National University) and Yuki Shiraito (Dartmouth College)

Youngwon Hall
11:50 A.M. Lunch Samik Hall
1:30 P.M. Session 3 - Experimental Methods

Woncheol Jang (Seoul National University), “How many people participated in candlelight protests? Statistical Counting of Dynamic Crowd

Raymond Duch (University of Oxford, Nuffield College), “Deliberating Financial Literacy: An Online Field Experiment on Reddit

Discussant: John B. Londregan (Princeton University) and Shang-Eng Ha (Sogang University)

Youngwon Hall
3:00 P.M.  Tea Break  
3:30 P.M. Session 4: Bayesian Analysis

Shawn Treier (Australia National University), “Measuring Ideology over Time: Sorting Out Partisan and Electoral Polarization in the American Public

Jong Hee Park (Seoul National University) and Soichiro Yamauchi (Princeton University), “Lost in Regularization: Change-point Analysis in Regularized Regression Models”

Discussant: Xun Pang (Tsinghua University) and Ahra Wu (Rice University)

Youngwon Hall
5:00 P.M. Tea Break  
5:20 P.M. Poster Sesssion 1
(Please see below for session 1 presenters)
Samik Hall
6:30 P.M. Dinner  

FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 2018

8:40 A.M. Shuttle Pick-Up at Hoam Faculty House  
9:00 A.M. Session 5: Political Methodology for Lobby

In Song Kim (MIT), “Mapping Political Communities: A Statistical Analysis of Lobbying Networks in Legislative Politics

Hyeyoung You (New York University), “Career Concerns of Revolving Door Lobbyists and Policy Bias

Discussant: Yunkyu Sohn (Princeton University) and Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University)

Youngwon Hall
10:30 A.M. Tea Break  
10:40 A.M. Session 6 - Statistical Methods for Representation

Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University), “The Effect of Candidate List Position on Vote Share: Improving Internal and External Validity

Teppei Yamamoto (MIT), “Why Replications Do Not Fix the Reproducibility Crisis: A Model and Evidence from a Large-Scale Vignette Experiment

Discussant: Taehee Whang (Yonsei University) and Byung-Jae Lee (Yonsei University)

Youngwon Hall
12:10 P.M. Lunch Samik Hall
1:10-2:00 P.M. Poster Session 2
(Please see below for session 2 presenters)
 
2:00 P.M. Session 7: Invited Talk

Meeyoung Cha (KAIST), “Prominent Features of Rumor Propagation in Online Social Media”

Youngwon Hall
3:00 P.M. Tea Break  
3:20 P.M. Session 8 - Analyzing Congress using Statistical Methods

Yunkyu Sohn (Princeton University), “Analyzing Aggregate and Issue-specific Preference from Non-voting Datasets: Korean National Assembly from 1948 to the Present

Yoonjung Lee, Jihui Lee, Jesse Hammond, and Anthony Diaz (University of California, Berkeley), “Measuring the Evolution of Congressional Twitter Networks

Discussant: Hyeok Yong Kwon (Korea University) and Ji Yeon Jane Hong (HKUST)

Youngwon Hall
4:50 P.M. Concluding Remarks Youngwon Hall

Poster Session A (Alphabetical Order)

  1. Eichorst, Jason (University of Mannheim), “Institutional Obstacles to Viable Competition: Distinct Informational Cues in Bolivian Legislative Speech
  2. Eshima, Shusei (The University of Tokyo) and Daichi Mochihashi (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics), “Tree-Structured Topic Model: a nonparametric Bayesian approach to model texts in a continuous space”
  3. Hahm, Hyeonho (University of Mannheim), “How to Design: A Conjoint Analysis of Public Attitudes Toward EU Decision Making”
     
  4. Han, Sung Min and Mi Jeong Shin (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics), “Do Housing Prices affect Government Popularity?: The Political Consequences of Housing Prices”
     
  5. Hirose, Kentaro (Waseda University), “Endogenous Markov Switching Panel Models”
  6. Joo, Minnie Minhyung (Pennsylvania State University), “Estimation of Survival Models in the Presence of Misclassification of Failure-Events: Introducing Bayesian Misclassified-Failure Survival Model”
  7. Katagiri, Azusa (New York University/Columbia University), “Threat Perception and Security Risks in Asymmetric Alliances”
  8. Lee, Byung-Jae (Yonsei University), “Modeling Dynamic Process with Potential Outcomes Framework”
  9. Lin, Nick and Eichorst, Jason (University of Mannheim), “Classification Consistency between Dictionary Methods and Human Coding of Political Text”
  10. Pang, Xun (Tsinghua University), “Link Remote Sensing and Political Science: An Application of Foreign Development Aid”
  11. Sasaki, Tomoya (The University of Tokyo) and Daichi Mochihashi (Institute of Statistical Mathematics), “Detecting Topic Changes among Texts”
  12. Wu, Ahra (Rice University), “A Bayesian Model with Categorical Endogenous Treatment and Sample Selection”

Poster Session B (Alphabetical Order)

  1. Chun, A Young (Yonsei University), “Measuring Silence: Analyzing Text for Sender Intent in Economic Sanctions”
  2. Chung, Kee Hoon (Korea University), “Differentiating Informal Institution, Social Capital, and Culture: An Empirical Strategy”
  3. Han, Yao (University College Dublin, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Tsinghua University), Johan A. Elkink (University College Dublin), Lan Xue (Tsinghua University), “Initiation and Reciprocation of Sanctions and Militarzied Interstate Disputes - More Dependent, More Aggressive?”
  4. Carl Huang (University of Virginia), “To Judge an Embassy: An IRT Approach of Measuring Diplomatic Appeal”
  5. Kang, Suji (Seoul National University), “Measuring Trade Preferences in Press Releases in the 114th US Congress”
  6. Lim, Junghyun (University of Pittsburgh), “Using Differences in Conditional Effect Plots to Evaluate Interactive Hypotheses”
  7. Lu, Xiao (University of Mannheim), “Responsiveness or Responsibility: Choice and Survival of Peripheral Parties in Dynamic Competition
  8. Maekawa, Wakako (University of Essex), “Estimating Preferences of Conflict Parties in Civil Wars: Incompatible Bargaining Positions and Compatible Hidden Interests”
  9. Noh, Yuree (UCLA), “Does Social Cohesion Reduce Electoral Fraud? Evidence from Algeria”
  10. Park, Sun Young (Seoul National University), “Inequality and Middle-Class Illusion: A Behavioral Model of Redistributive Preferences”
  11. Shin Sooahn (Seoul National University), “Where are the Extremists?: the Rim Problem of W-NOMINATE”
  12. Suwanpong, Pongsakorn (Peter), “China-Japan Political Relations and the Economic Impacts: A Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression Approach”
  13. Yoon, Soojung (Seoul National University), “Intrinsic Religiosity and Preference for Welfare: The Case of the U.S. from 1980s to Present”