2014 Tokyo Meeting - Program

MONDAY, JANUARY 6, 2014

8:15am  Registration (Entrance of Media Hall)

9:15am  Opening Remarks

*Kentaro Fukumoto, committee chair, Gakushuin University
*Naoko Taniguchi, local host, Tokyo Institute of Technology 

9:30am  Session 1 - Spatial and Temporal Models

Varying Response to Common Shocks and Complex Cross-Sectional Dependence: Dynamic Multilevel Modeling with Multifactor Error Str uctures for Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data
*Xun Pang, Tsinghua University

Session 1 Discussant: Randolph Stevenson, Rice University

10:20am  Break

10:40am  Plenary Session - Keynote Address

Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship
*Gary King, keynote speaker, Harvard University 

Plenary Session Chair: Kosuke Imai, Princeton University

12:00pm  Lunch

1:30pm  Session 2 - Causal Inference in Randomized Experiments

Identification and Estimation of Causal Mediation Effects with Treatment Noncompliance
*Teppei Yamamoto, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Blocking Reduces, if not Removes, Attrition Bias
*Kentaro Fukumoto, Gakushuin University

Session 2 Discussant: Raymond Duch, University of Oxford

3:10pm  Break

3:30pm  Session 3 - Conflict Studies

Every Conflict Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End: But Not Always in That Order
*Daina Chiba, University of Essex
Nils W. Metternich, University College, London
Michael D. Ward, Duke University

Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?
Kentaro Hirose, Princeton University
*Kosuke Imai, Princeton University
 Jason Lyall, Yale University

Session 3 Discussant: Kentaro Fukumoto, Gakushuin University

5:10pm  Break and Poster Session

7:00pm  Dinner

TUESDAY, JANUARY 7, 2014

8:30am  Registration

9:10am  Session 4 - Public Opinion

Locating Economic Perceptions: the Geographical Distribution of Responses to Economic News
Philipp Burckhardt, Carnegie Mellon University
*Raymond Duch, Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Akitaka Matsuo, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Internet Access Does Not Improve Civic Competence
Web Appendix
*Sean Richey, Georgia State University
Sophie Zhu, Georgia State University

Session 4 Discussant: Elina Brutschin, Webster University

10:50am  Break

11:10am  Session 5 - International Relations

Modeling Network Interdependence Using Bayesian Latent Space Approach
*Jong Hee Park, Seoul National University
*Yunkyu Sohn, University of California, San Diego

Session 5 Discussant: Koji Kagotani, Kobe University

12:00pm  Lunch

1:30pm  Session 6 - Causal Inference in Observational Studies

Front-door Difference-in-Differences Estimators: The Effects of Early In-person Voting on Turnout        
*Adam Glynn, Harvard University
Konstantin Kashin, Harvard University

Estimating Post-Treatment Effect Modification With Generalized Structural Mean Models
Marshall Joffe, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine
*Luke Keele, Pennsylvania State University
Alisa Stephens, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine

Session 6 Discussant: Manabu Kuroki, Institute of Statistical Mathematics

3:10pm  Break

3:30pm  Session 7 - International Relations & Item Response Theory

Detecting Audience Costs in International Crises
Shuhei Kurizaki, Waseda University
*Taehee Whang, Korea University

Event Count Analysis vs. Item Response Theory: A Comparative Investigation
Tse-min Lin, University of Texas at Austin 
*Etsuhiro Nakamura, Ehime University

Session 7 Discussant: Takeshi Iida, Doshisha University


5:10pm  Concluding Remarks

*Kentaro Fukumoto, committee chair, Gakushuin University
*Kosuke Imai, Princeton University

POSTERS

Asymmetric Dependence and Interstate Conflict Embedded in Trade Networks
*Yao Han, University College Dublin

District Magnitude and Electoral Balancing: A Natural Experiment in Japan
Yusaki Horiuchi, Darmouth College
*Michio Umeda, University of Tokyo

Does "How Much You Know About What You Know" Matter?: The Use of Self-assessed Correctness in Political Knowledge Research
*Seonghui Lee, Rice University
*Akitaka Matsuo, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Ethnicity and Electoral Fraud in New Democracies: Modeling Political Party Agents in Ghana
Jake Bowers, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Mark Fredrickson, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
*Nahomi Ichino, Harvard University

Growing Negative Sentiments Towards China? Quantitative Analysis of Kazakh Official News Sources and Blogs by Comparing Issues and Actors
*Elina Brutschin, Webster University

A Laboratory Experiment of Voter Turnout Paradox
*Naoko Taniguchi, Tokyo Institute of Technology

Looking at How Respondents Look at Survey Questions: Eye-tracking Examination of Response Order Effects in Party Support Questions and Value Batteries
Masahisa Endo, Waseda University
*Airo Hino, Waseda University
Arata Yamazaki, Waseda University

Measuring Geographic Context: A New Approach
*Ryan Moore, Washington University in St. Louis
Andrew Reeves, Washington University in St. Louis

Promise and Pitfalls for Using Google Consumer Surveys in Political Research
Raymond Duch, Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Philip Santoso, Rice University
*Randolph Stevenson, Rice University
Bob Stein, Rice University

Rational Information Updating and Dynamics of Party Support
*Etsuhiro Nakamura, Ehime University